By Satyabrat Borah
In the bustling port city of Tianjin, China, a high-stakes geopolitical poker game unfolded on September 1, 2025, drawing the world’s attention to an unlikely table of players: Narendra Modi of India, Xi Jinping of China, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and, looming large in the background, Donald Trump of the United States. This was no ordinary summit; it was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathering, a forum originally designed to foster security and economic ties among Eurasian nations but now serving as a dramatic counterpoint to American dominance. The leaders’ interactions, filled with handshakes, shared limousine rides, and declarations of partnership, painted a vivid picture of shifting alliances, where cards of trade, tariffs, and territorial ambitions were played with calculated precision. At the heart of this game was a message aimed squarely at the White House: the era of unchallenged U.S. influence might be drawing to a close.
The stage was set against a backdrop of escalating tensions. Just weeks earlier, President Trump had imposed a staggering 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, a move that doubled down on previous penalties and targeted New Delhi for its continued purchases of discounted Russian oil. This economic salvo was part of Trump’s broader strategy to pressure nations aligning too closely with Moscow amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. India, long viewed by Washington as a strategic counterweight to China’s rise, found itself caught in the crossfire. Prime Minister Modi, known for his deft diplomatic maneuvers, had ignored multiple calls from Trump seeking concessions, including an audacious request for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination in recognition of supposed mediation efforts between India and Pakistan. Instead, Modi turned eastward, embarking on his first visit to China in seven years, a trip that symbolized a pragmatic pivot away from overreliance on the United States.
As Modi arrived in Tianjin, the optics were meticulously orchestrated. He was greeted warmly by President Xi, who had already positioned the summit as a platform for promoting a multipolar world order. The two leaders, whose nations share a volatile border marred by deadly clashes in 2020, met bilaterally on August 30 in Beijing. Xi emphasized that India and China should view each other as partners rather than rivals, a sentiment echoed by Modi, who spoke of rebuilding trust and enhancing connectivity. Their discussions touched on trade, technology, and regional stability, with both sides expressing hope to return relations to the amicable state they enjoyed before the pandemic and border skirmishes. This thaw was not without its ironies; just last year, Indian and Chinese troops had clashed along the Line of Actual Control, resulting in casualties on both sides. Yet, the shared grievance of American tariffs provided fertile ground for reconciliation. India’s exports to the U.S., its largest market, faced severe disruptions, prompting Modi to explore alternatives in Chinese business opportunities while maintaining vigilance on sensitive issues like technology transfers and territorial claims.
Enter Vladimir Putin, the seasoned player whose presence added layers of intrigue to the hand. The Russian president, fresh from a summit with Trump in Alaska on August 15, arrived in Tianjin with his own agenda. That earlier meeting in Anchorage had been billed as a step toward peace in Ukraine, with Trump issuing ultimatums and deadlines for ceasefire talks. Putin, however, dismissed these as Western posturing, reiterating in his Tianjin speech that the conflict stemmed from NATO’s expansionist ambitions. He praised recent “understandings” with Trump but gave no ground, instead thanking China and India for their support in facilitating a resolution on Russia’s terms. Putin’s camaraderie with Modi was particularly striking. The two leaders, bound by decades of strategic partnership, shared a 45-minute conversation in the back of Putin’s armored Aurus limousine before their official bilateral talks. Modi later posted a photo of the ride on social media, captioning it, “Conversations with him are always insightful.” Putin reciprocated by calling Modi his “dear friend” and highlighting the “friendly and trusting” relations between their nations. This display echoed Putin’s own limo ride with Trump in Alaska, but here it served as a subtle rebuke, signaling that Moscow’s alliances extended far beyond Washington.
The summit’s highlight came during the opening session, when the three leaders Modi, Xi, and Putin formed a tight circle, holding hands and exchanging smiles for the cameras. It was a moment of symbolic unity, captured in photographs that quickly went viral. Modi burst into his characteristic hearty laughter, Putin grinned broadly, and Xi offered a measured smile, all while delegates from Central Asian nations and beyond looked on. This tableau was interpreted worldwide as a direct challenge to Trump. Analysts noted that it undermined U.S. efforts to peel Russia away from China, a modern echo of Richard Nixon’s 1972 pivot that isolated the Soviet Union by opening ties with Beijing. What unfolded in Tianjin could be dubbed a “Reverse Nixon,” with Putin positioning Russia as the pivotal power, drawing India closer to the Sino-Russian orbit at America’s expense. The Tianjin Declaration, signed by SCO members, condemned “unilateral coercive measures” that undermine international law and WTO norms a clear swipe at Trump’s tariffs without naming him. It advocated for multilateralism and inclusive global governance, themes Modi reinforced by stressing connectivity and trade as pathways to growth and trust.
Trump’s reaction from Washington was predictably fiery. He warned of economic chaos if his tariffs were challenged, framing them as essential to protecting American workers and curbing funding for Russia’s war machine. Yet, the tariffs had unintended consequences. India’s national security advisor had visited Moscow the previous month, and its foreign minister followed suit just last week, underscoring deepening ties. Modi extended an invitation for Putin to visit India before year’s end, a gesture that thrilled 1.4 billion Indians, as he put it. Meanwhile, China, facing its own U.S. tariffs as high as 145 percent, used the summit to burnish its image as a responsible global leader. Xi outlined a new Global Governance Initiative, criticizing hegemonism and power politics while preparing for a military parade in Beijing on September 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of World War II’s end. Attended by Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, the event would showcase China’s military prowess and further solidify anti-Western alliances.
This poker game of international relations reveals the intricate bluffs and bets at play. Putin, often likened to a poker maestro for his aggressive brinkmanship, has long thrived on imperfect information and bold gambles. His invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was such a high-stakes raise, initially catching the West off guard but now facing sustained pushback through sanctions and military aid. Trump, with his casino background, fancies himself a dealmaker who can outmaneuver opponents, but his impulsive style has alienated key players. By alienating India, Trump risks unraveling a quarter-century of U.S. diplomacy that positioned New Delhi as a Quad partner alongside Japan, Australia, and the U.S. to contain China. Modi’s multi-alignment strategy a friend to all, enemy to none allows him to balance these dynamics, buying Russian oil to fuel India’s economy while investing in ties with Tokyo and maintaining the Quad’s relevance.
The implications extend beyond Asia. Europe’s rearmament and Ukraine’s resilience add pressure on Putin, whose economy strains under sanctions despite oil revenues from buyers like India and China. For Xi, the summit bolsters China’s sway, providing leverage ahead of potential talks with Trump on trade, TikTok, and Taiwan. A possible four-way meeting involving Xi, Putin, Kim, and Trump looms as a wild card, where Beijing’s influence over Pyongyang and Moscow could prove decisive. Yet, differences persist: Sino-Indian border disputes, Russia’s anxieties over its shared frontier with China, and divergences on North Korea ensure this troika is no unbreakable alliance.
As the cards turn, the game favors adaptability. Modi’s laughter in Tianjin, Putin’s grin, and Xi’s smile mask deeper calculations. Trump, holding what he believes is a strong hand, may find himself outplayed if he fails to recalibrate. In this geopolitical poker, the pot includes global trade routes, energy security, and the future of multilateralism. The players know that folding too early cedes the table, but overplaying risks busting out. For now, the Eurasian powers have raised the stakes, forcing Washington to decide whether to call, raise, or fold. The world watches, aware that the next deal could reshape alliances for decades.
This summit marks a pivotal flop in the ongoing hand, revealing communal cards of shared interests against U.S. unilateralism. Modi’s pivot, while pragmatic, does not sever ties with America; India remains dependent on U.S. investment and defense tech. Putin gains breathing room, but his war drags on without victory. Xi emerges strengthened, hosting parades and summits that project power. Trump, the wildcard dealer, must navigate his self-inflicted isolation. In poker terms, the table is tense: bluffs are called, pots grow, and no one shows their full hand yet. The game continues, with higher stakes on the turn and river, testing the resolve of leaders who cannot afford to go all-in without a winning strategy.
