New Delhi, Sept 30: India received 87.4 per cent of its long period average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September period, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon season since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
One of the main reasons for rainfall deficit this monsoon was the prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific region which emerged in June, and have been strengthening since then, the IMD said in its monthly forecast.
Currently, strong El Nino conditions are prevailing and may persist till March 2027, it said.
The country this season recorded 759.4 mm rainfall as against normal rainfall of 868.6 mm during the monsoon period, a 13 per cent deficit, the IMD said.
In its forecast for the monsoon on May 29, the IMD had said that rainfall was likely to be 90 per cent of the LPA with a model error of 4 per cent. Initially, on April 13, the department had predicted rainfall during the monsoon to be 92 per cent of the LPA.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years.
El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a climate phenomenon – and is known to have a warming effect on the planet and less monsoon rainfall in India. Its opposite phase, called La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.
According to the weather department, the rainfall deficit this year was maximum during June with 35.4 per cent, followed by August (16.3 per cent) and then September (7.6 per cent). July was the only month to see above-normal rainfall, with surplus being one per cent.
In a statement, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology (DGM) at IMD, highlighted that the rainfall deficit in the country could have been higher, if not for emergence of low-pressure systems that brought additional rains during the season.
“There were 14 low pressure systems that formed this season, and 77 low-pressure system days were witnessed against the normal 57 days,” he added.
Speaking about the monsoon’s withdrawal, Mohapatra noted that so far, it has withdrawn from most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, entire Delhi, and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
Conditions are favourable for monsoon withdrawal from most parts of central and northwest India during the first week of October, and from most parts of the east, northeast and some parts of north peninsular India during the second week of the month.
Speaking about the October forecast, the IMD chief said, “The average rainfall over the country during the month is likely to be below normal — 85 per cent of the LPA.”
The LPA rainfall over the country during October, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 75.4 mm.
Most parts of India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall except some areas in northwest India, southern parts of peninsular India, and isolated areas of East India, which may experience normal to above-normal rainfall.
Moreover, both maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures during October are expected to be above-normal, the IMD said. (PTI)
