Kolkata, Nov 30: India’s population is expected to stabilise by 2080 at 1.8 or 1.9 billion due to dipping total fertility rate, which is currently below the replacement level at 1.9, an official said.
India is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with the birth rate dropping sharply over the past two decades, he said.
“In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline,” Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran told PTI.
He said India’s population is expected to peak at 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080, when growth is expected to stabilise.
“All estimates show that India’s maximum population will remain below two billion,” Chandran added.
He attributed the fall in fertility primarily to increasing development and education levels. Increased female literacy, he said, has directly shaped decisions around marriage and childbearing, leading to smaller families.
Greater use of contraceptives and wider access to birth control have further accelerated the decline, he said.
“Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” Chandran said.
He said that late marriages and growing economic opportunities — especially for women pursuing careers — have also significantly influenced reproductive choices.
“Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Illiterate groups still have fertility levels above three, but among the educated, TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8,” he said.
Citing Kerala’s example, Chandran said the state achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989 and now has a TFR of around 1.5.
West Bengal’s fertility rate has also seen a sharp fall. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the state’s TFR has dropped to 1.3, down from 1.7 in 2013 — a decline of nearly 18 per cent and well below the replacement level of 2.1. West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in the country, on par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, while recording the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally, he said.
The demographer noted that while birth rates are falling, life expectancy continues to rise due to improvements in healthcare.
“More people are living beyond 60, and this brings new challenges of elderly care, especially as younger people migrate for work,” he said, adding that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly being discussed.
IASP, founded in 1971 and comprising around 1,100 demographers and population scientists, regularly deliberates on such issues with support from bodies including UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India. (PTI)
