Bharat Bhushan
As of 5 August, Sheikh Hasina has resigned as Bangladesh Prime Minister – and fled Dhaka. Soon after, the Bangladeshi Army announced that a new interim government will be formed today. Hasina was ousted by a students’ movement which demanded the cancellation of quotas in government jobs, but quickly transformed into a public uprising.
The uprising was fueled by more than 300 people who were killed in the protests which began on 1 July. The death toll, the highest in Bangladesh since its Liberation War in 1971, resulted in the issue of quotas in government jobs being sidelined after the Bangladesh Supreme Court scrapped most of the quotas on 22 July.
It quickly moved to a single point agenda – ensuring the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina whom the students hold squarely responsible for the unprecedented state violence against them.
There were several indications that a mere retreat on job quotas by the Hasina government was not going to satisfy the student protestors. The students wanted the culprits responsible for the torture, arrest, and killings of their comrades to be identified, brought to trial, and punished.
On Sunday, 4 August alone, more than 100 people were killed when the protests targeting Prime Minister Hasina re-erupted. They included more than a dozen policemen and at least half a dozen Awami League activists, underlining how the movement had turned against those responsible for the deaths of protestors.
On Sunday, after the students gave a call for marching onto Gano Bhaban, the prime minister’s office, on Monday morning, curfew was re-imposed in Dhaka.
On Monday morning, the internet was cut in the forenoon for more than three hours. The time gained seems to have been used by the Army to persuade Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign and to facilitate her flight out of the country. The details of what transpired between her and the Army before her resignation remain unclear.
What is known is that the Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman was under pressure from his subordinate officers not to give orders to fire on the protestors. They did not want the Army to be seen as part of the government’s crackdown on the student protestors.
On Saturday, General Zaman, sensitive to the mood of his officers, chose to address them in Dhaka. He is reported to have explained to them why he was forced to deploy the Army – he was under the orders of the Head of State to aid civil administration. It is a measure of the discomfort within the army that he had to assure the officers that henceforth the army will not fire a single shot at the protestors.
According to sources in Dhaka, on Monday morning, General Zaman had conveyed to the divisional commanders not to fire on the protesting students, even though the prime minister had issued instructions to the Army to thwart the march to her office.
Once it was clear that the Bangladesh Armed Forces were unlikely to come to her rescue, the game was over for Sheikh Hasina.
Although no one knows how things might unfold after Sheikh Hasina’s exit, since early Monday morning, there was talk of the Army installing an interim government consisting of civil society leaders and technocrats after her resignation. This has now been confirmed by General Zaman in his address to the nation, and that an interim government will be formed today. There was also speculation about who might lead it. Two names doing the rounds included that of General (Retired) Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan or Nobel Laureate Dr Mohammad Yunus.
However, leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) that this correspondent spoke to were categorical that they would not accept General (Retd) Bhuiyan, one of them describing him as a “dodgy character” who had “connived” with the Awami League to rig the 2014 general election when he was the army chief. Dr Yunus at 84 years old, they thought, was too old for the job.
Even if Hasina did not realise that her days were numbered, several of her partymen proved much better than her at reading the tea leaves. By 3 August, unconfirmed reports claimed that at least two dozen former Awami League ministers had fled the country with their families. Many of them are believed to have left Bangladesh between 14 and 17 July, and gone off to countries including the US, the UK, Canada, Singapore, Australia, India, Thailand, China, and Dubai.
Those who fled during the weekend include the Mayor of Dhaka South, Sheikh Fazle Noor Taposh, who left Dhaka who left for Singapore on 2 August. Taposh was considered virtually a member of the ruling Sheikh Mujib family as his father was Sheikh Fazlul Haque Moni, one of the key organisers of the Liberation War and commander of the Mujib Bahini. The Awami League MP from Narayanganj is also rumoured to have fled the country.
It remains to be seen how the public views the flight of Sheikh Hasina and the possible role of the army in facilitating it. The protestors wanted her arrested and tried. Her being flown out in an army helicopter may not go very well with the public – and there might be some blowback on the army chief.
As for India, it finds itself on the wrong side of public opinion in Bangladesh. If Hasina takes shelter in India, that will have disastrous consequences for its image in Bangladesh. However, the speculation is that she may be en route to a third country.
India is already deeply unpopular in Bangladesh because of its perceived unconditional support for Sheikh Hasina and her manipulation of the democratic process for the last 15 years. India has also virtually closed any meaningful dialogue with the main Opposition, the BNP.
There are also reports that a senior retired intelligence officer was clandestinely sent to Dhaka to advise the Hasina government on how to handle the student protestors. This officer reportedly had a meeting with Hasina as well as the three service chiefs and security agency chiefs on 21 July at Gano Bhaban.
How India deals with suddenly finding itself on the wrong side of history, however, remains to be seen.
