By Satyabrat Borah
The political trajectory of Assam over the last decade represents one of the most significant shifts in Indian regional governance. The recent victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the subsequent rise of Himanta Biswa Sarma to a position of unrivaled authority offer a complex study of how electoral success is manufactured and maintained. While the numbers suggest a resounding mandate, a deeper analysis reveals a transformed political landscape where traditional ethnic identities have been replaced by a sharp religious binary, and where the machinery of the state has been utilized to reshape the electorate itself.
The ascent of Himanta Biswa Sarma is the primary driver of this transformation. His career began within the Congress party, where he served as a key lieutenant during the tenure of Tarun Gogoi. His departure from the Congress in 2015 was not merely a change of personal allegiance but a catalyst for the total collapse of the old order. Since 2001, Sarma has won six consecutive elections from the Jalukbari constituency, demonstrating a level of local popularity that few leaders in India can match. Since becoming Chief Minister in 2021, he has used his exceptional organizational abilities to turn the BJP into a machine that operates with clinical precision.
This machine relies on two distinct but complementary pillars: welfare delivery and administrative restructuring. The Orunodoi scheme is perhaps the most visible example of the party’s success in building a loyal base. By providing direct cash transfers to women from lower-income families, the government created a direct relationship with the female electorate that bypassed traditional community leaders. Similarly, Mission Basundhara sought to streamline land records and protect the rights of indigenous settlers. While these initiatives brought modernization to a bureaucratic system, they also served as tools for the deep expansion of the BJP’s influence into the most remote parts of the Brahmaputra Valley.
While welfare schemes provided the carrot, administrative measures provided the stick. The 2023 delimitation of assembly constituencies stands as a masterclass in political engineering. By redrawing the boundaries of seats, the government managed to pack certain communities into specific areas while cracking others across multiple districts. The primary result of this exercise was the systematic suppression of Muslim representation in the legislative assembly. This ensured that even with a high percentage of the population, certain demographics could no longer influence the outcome of enough seats to challenge the ruling coalition. This process effectively rendered regional parties and the opposition inconsequential, as the new maps favored the demographic concentrations that support the BJP.
The consequences of this victory are felt most acutely in the social fabric of the state. Assam has a long history of complex ethnic and linguistic politics, where the primary tension often existed between Assamese speakers and Bengali speakers regardless of religion. Under the current leadership, this has been simplified into a Hindu-Muslim binary. The rhetoric employed during the campaign and within the halls of government has consistently prioritized a specific definition of indigenous identity that excludes Bengali-speaking Muslims. This polarization has moved from the realm of speech into the realm of state action.
In 2025 alone, the state witnessed the displacement of 40,000 individuals through massive eviction drives. Officially, these actions are framed as a necessary measure against encroachment on government land or protected areas. In practice, these drives have disproportionately targeted Bengali-speaking Muslim communities. By framing these actions as the protection of land rights for the “sons of the soil,” the government has successfully used state power to consolidate its Hindu voter base while marginalizing a significant portion of the population. This selective targeting of communities has created a sense of insecurity that echoes through the sensitive border regions of the state.
The victory of the BJP in Assam also has national implications for the internal power dynamics of the party. Himanta Biswa Sarma is widely perceived as being close to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and his success in Assam has made him the central figure for the BJP across the entire Northeast. The party now commands a majority on its own in the 126-member assembly, and the ruling coalition sits comfortably with 102 members. This level of dominance has allowed the BJP to dilute the influence of regional allies who were once essential for its survival in the state. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and other local entities have been forced into a position of total dependence, losing their ability to act as independent voices for regional interests.
As the state moves forward under this renewed mandate, the long-term health of the polity remains a point of concern. Assam is a geographically and demographically sensitive region that shares borders with several countries. The stability of such an area depends on the inclusion and participation of all its citizens. While the BJP has proven its ability to win elections through a mix of welfare, rhetoric, and administrative power, the cost of this success is a deeply divided society. The current assembly reflects a state where communities are more isolated from one another than ever before.
The question for the future is whether a government can sustain its authority solely through polarization and the suppression of the opposition. All political parties have the right to seek power and consolidate their influence. Genuine success in a democracy requires a commitment to the interests of the country as a whole rather than just the majority that placed the leaders in power. The triumph of the BJP in Assam is undeniable in its scale, but the methods used to achieve it have left a lasting mark on the democratic institutions of the state. At this moment of victory, it is necessary to examine the fractures that have been created in the pursuit of total political dominance. The health of a democracy is not measured by the size of a majority but by the protection of those who are not part of it.
